Discussion The Quiet Collapse of Film Markets — And the Rise of a New Power Center

[admin]

The Quiet Collapse of Film Markets — And the Rise of a New Power Center​

Film markets are becoming checkpoints, not starting points.

Film markets are undergoing a quiet but significant structural shift, and it’s becoming more visible every year. Events like the Marché du Film and the European Film Market still exist, but they feel smaller, shorter, and less central than they once were. Fewer people stay for the full duration, and many of the key deals are no longer happening on-site. Instead, a growing portion of real business takes place before the market even begins, through private outreach, closed networks, and early-stage negotiations. At the same time, platforms like Netflix and Amazon Studios have moved away from relying on traditional markets, building their own pipelines and engaging with projects much earlier in development. As a result, film markets are gradually turning into checkpoints rather than starting points places where deals are confirmed rather than discovered.

At the same time, the traditional. U.S market scene appears to be weakening, with many industry professionals noting that American film markets have lost much of their previous influence. In contrast, growing attention is shifting toward the Toronto International Film Festival, where the surrounding market ecosystem is expected to expand significantly this year. Some even believe Toronto could emerge as the new North American hub for deal-making, potentially overtaking older market structures. Alongside this, smaller niche events, co-production forums, and festival-driven buzz particularly around premieres at the Cannes Film Festival are increasingly taking over parts of the traditional market’s role. This doesn’t mean live markets are disappearing, but it does suggest they are losing their position as the central engine of the industry. If this trend continues, the real question is no longer whether film markets survive, but whether they remain essential in a fragmented, year-round global system.

What do you think is Toronto really becoming the new deal-making hub, or are film markets simply losing their central role altogether?

 

[Lucas]

The Quiet Collapse of Film Markets — And the Rise of a New Power Center​

Film markets are becoming checkpoints, not starting points.

Film markets are undergoing a quiet but significant structural shift, and it’s becoming more visible every year. Events like the Marché du Film and the European Film Market still exist, but they feel smaller, shorter, and less central than they once were. Fewer people stay for the full duration, and many of the key deals are no longer happening on-site. Instead, a growing portion of real business takes place before the market even begins, through private outreach, closed networks, and early-stage negotiations. At the same time, platforms like Netflix and Amazon Studios have moved away from relying on traditional markets, building their own pipelines and engaging with projects much earlier in development. As a result, film markets are gradually turning into checkpoints rather than starting points places where deals are confirmed rather than discovered.

At the same time, the traditional. U.S market scene appears to be weakening, with many industry professionals noting that American film markets have lost much of their previous influence. In contrast, growing attention is shifting toward the Toronto International Film Festival, where the surrounding market ecosystem is expected to expand significantly this year. Some even believe Toronto could emerge as the new North American hub for deal-making, potentially overtaking older market structures. Alongside this, smaller niche events, co-production forums, and festival-driven buzz particularly around premieres at the Cannes Film Festival are increasingly taking over parts of the traditional market’s role. This doesn’t mean live markets are disappearing, but it does suggest they are losing their position as the central engine of the industry. If this trend continues, the real question is no longer whether film markets survive, but whether they remain essential in a fragmented, year-round global system.

What do you think is Toronto really becoming the new deal-making hub, or are film markets simply losing their central role altogether?

Interesting take, Admin. I think we’re witnessing the "Death of the Middleman Market."

The reason Toronto (TIFF) is gaining such ground isn't just about the location; it's about the timing. TIFF sits at the perfect intersection of the fall awards season and the end-of-year budget cycles. If you’re a buyer, you want to see how a film actually plays with a real audience before committing something you don’t get in a sterile sales office at a traditional market.

However, I’d argue that the "collapse" of traditional markets like AFM isn't just because of Toronto. It’s because the "Package Model" has taken over.

The Old Way: You go to a market to discover a hidden gem.
The New Way: Agencies like CAA or WME "package" the director, stars, and script, then shop it privately to streamers and big indies weeks before anyone boards a plane.

By the time the market floor opens, the "hidden gems" are already gone. The market has become an expensive networking party where we all pretend to be looking for content that was sold in a PDF three weeks ago.

The real shift isn't just to Toronto it's to the "Year-Round Market." With global digital distribution, the idea of waiting for a specific week in May or November to sell a film feels increasingly like a 20th-century relic.

That said, if Toronto does build a formal, centralized market infrastructure to rival the European ones, it could definitely be the final nail in the coffin for the older U.S. market models. But will it be enough to stop the industry from becoming a 24/7 private digital auction? I'm not so sure.

 

[Samantha]

Interesting take, Admin. I think we’re witnessing the "Death of the Middleman Market."

The reason Toronto (TIFF) is gaining such ground isn't just about the location; it's about the timing. TIFF sits at the perfect intersection of the fall awards season and the end-of-year budget cycles. If you’re a buyer, you want to see how a film actually plays with a real audience before committing something you don’t get in a sterile sales office at a traditional market.

However, I’d argue that the "collapse" of traditional markets like AFM isn't just because of Toronto. It’s because the "Package Model" has taken over.

The Old Way: You go to a market to discover a hidden gem.
The New Way: Agencies like CAA or WME "package" the director, stars, and script, then shop it privately to streamers and big indies weeks before anyone boards a plane.

By the time the market floor opens, the "hidden gems" are already gone. The market has become an expensive networking party where we all pretend to be looking for content that was sold in a PDF three weeks ago.

The real shift isn't just to Toronto it's to the "Year-Round Market." With global digital distribution, the idea of waiting for a specific week in May or November to sell a film feels increasingly like a 20th-century relic.

That said, if Toronto does build a formal, centralized market infrastructure to rival the European ones, it could definitely be the final nail in the coffin for the older U.S. market models. But will it be enough to stop the industry from becoming a 24/7 private digital auction? I'm not so sure.

Interesting take, Lucas. I think you’re pretty much on point here.

The package model really changed everything. By the time people show up at the American Film Market or even the Marché du Film, most of the strong projects have already been circulated privately.

That whole “finding a hidden gem” aspect is basically gone.
I also agree on Toronto International Film Festival it’s getting stronger because you actually see how a film plays with a real audience. That carries way more weight now than watching something in a sales office.

But I’m not convinced Toronto becomes the new central hub.

Feels more like the opposite there isn’t really a single center anymore. Everything’s spread out across the year, happening through private deals.

And yeah, markets do feel a bit like expensive networking events now, where most of the real decisions were already made beforehand.

 

[Adam Films]

Interesting take, Admin. I think we’re witnessing the "Death of the Middleman Market."

The reason Toronto (TIFF) is gaining such ground isn't just about the location; it's about the timing. TIFF sits at the perfect intersection of the fall awards season and the end-of-year budget cycles. If you’re a buyer, you want to see how a film actually plays with a real audience before committing something you don’t get in a sterile sales office at a traditional market.

However, I’d argue that the "collapse" of traditional markets like AFM isn't just because of Toronto. It’s because the "Package Model" has taken over.

The Old Way: You go to a market to discover a hidden gem.
The New Way: Agencies like CAA or WME "package" the director, stars, and script, then shop it privately to streamers and big indies weeks before anyone boards a plane.

By the time the market floor opens, the "hidden gems" are already gone. The market has become an expensive networking party where we all pretend to be looking for content that was sold in a PDF three weeks ago.

The real shift isn't just to Toronto it's to the "Year-Round Market." With global digital distribution, the idea of waiting for a specific week in May or November to sell a film feels increasingly like a 20th-century relic.

That said, if Toronto does build a formal, centralized market infrastructure to rival the European ones, it could definitely be the final nail in the coffin for the older U.S. market models. But will it be enough to stop the industry from becoming a 24/7 private digital auction? I'm not so sure.

Feels like we’re past the point of markets being where deals happen.

By the time projects reach the American Film Market or the Marché du Film, they’re already sold or at least decided.

That’s why everything feels flatter now. The discovery part is gone.

TIFF (Toronto International Film Festival) isn’t replacing markets it’s just one of the last places where you still get real audience validation, and that’s become more valuable than any sales pitch.

Honestly, this doesn’t feel like a power shift.

It feels like the industry just stopped needing a center.